Conditions worsen, water rises in Florida as Nicole approaches
Almost all of the east coast should see some impact from Nicole and conditions in Florida will continue to worsen with hurricane conditions expected Wednesday night. Impacts from the large and fast-moving tropical storm will spread to the southeastern United States and the mid-Atlantic from Thursday through Friday, with the storm likely to have left the United States as early as Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane warnings have been posted from Jupiter, Florida to north of Daytona Beach. Cities warned include West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie and Melbourne. Tropical storm warnings have been issued as far north as Brunswick, Ga.; Warnings also extend south to Hollywood, Florida. Tropical storm warnings are in effect as far north as Miami and parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast still recovering from Hurricane Ian. Tropical storm viewing extends to Murphy Island, South Carolina
Here’s a look at the forecast for several cities in Florida and beyond.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale area
While the storm’s core is expected to make landfall north of Miami, the city is still expected to experience some impact from Nicole.
A tropical storm watch and flood watch were issued for the coastal city, which was largely spared significant impacts during Hurricane Ian. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center says winds are likely to remain below sustained tropical storm force (39 mph), but a southward shift of Nicole’s track could bring tropical storm force conditions to the city with sustained winds of up to 57 mph right.
A 1- to 3-foot storm surge is possible in flood-prone areas, while 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected across the area. Sites that experience heavy rainfall can cause significant flooding, particularly in low-lying, often flooded locations.
Melbourne is likely to experience significant impact from Nicole, with landing expected south of the city around Port St Lucie. The city was placed under a hurricane warning, with storm conditions worsening throughout Wednesday and lasting into early Thursday.
Melbourne residents should expect sustained tropical storm winds of up to 55 miles per hour and gusts of up to 80 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, locals should brace for winds of up to 73 mph, which is equivalent to a storm on the verge of a Category 1 hurricane.
Nicole is expected to bring a “life-threatening” storm surge of 3 to 5 feet from North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, enough to cause damage and force thousands of evacuations. Just a foot of storm surge is expected in Melbourne itself. In terms of rainfall, the latest forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of potentially flooding precipitation, as well as isolated tornadoes.
8.11. | Off to East Central Florida! A flood warning is in effect from 7:00 a.m. EST Wednesday to 1:00 p.m. EST Thursday. Rainfall levels of 4-6″ with locally higher amounts of 8″ along the coast and 2-4″ with locally higher amounts inland are possible. pic.twitter.com/5468kzhtE1
— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) November 8, 2022
Rivers and tributaries in and around Orlando are still being impacted by significant flooding more than a month after Hurricane Ian ripped through the central Florida region, making Nicole’s rains the biggest concern for the region.
Orlando has been placed under a tropical storm warning and a flood watch, with tropical storm conditions expected to continue through Thursday noon. Wind speeds are expected to be maintained at 45 to 55mph, with occasional gusts of up to 75mph, enough to cause significant wind damage and power outages. There’s also a chance sustained winds will be higher, peaking at just below hurricane force at 73 mph.
The city is forecast to see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible. Rivers and tributaries, particularly the St. Johns River, can burst their banks, forcing evacuations. A few weak tornadoes are possible.
Tampa has been placed under a tropical storm warning, with showers and gales from Nicole expected to hit the city Wednesday afternoon. Center Nicole could end up passing near or over Tampa, and the storm could enter the Gulf of Mexico and regain or maintain strength before making a second landfall on the Florida Peninsula, prompting storm surge warnings north of Clearwater leads to St. James Island, Fla.
Regardless of whether Nicole reappears in the Gulf, Tampa will experience similar conditions. Tropical storm winds are expected to begin early Thursday morning, with sustained winds likely to remain at or below 40mph. However, residents should plan for the possibility of strong tropical storm winds of up to 73 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center, due to some uncertainty about Nicole’s strength and track.
Storm surges of 1 to 3 feet are possible in the flood-prone city, meaning some coastal locations may experience minor flooding. In addition to the storm surge, general rains of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.
The city of Jacksonville has been placed under a tropical storm warning, a storm surge warning and a flood watch as Nicole approaches. Nicole is already causing water to rise on the shoreline, and until Veterans Day, the city’s beaches are on a high surf recommendation for breaking waves of up to 20 feet.
Here are the updated potential impacts.
1) The isolated tornado threat has been expanded to most of NE FL and SE GA. 🌪️
2) The potential for moderate flooding rain has been extended inland. 🌧️
3) Threat of 58 to 73 mph wind potential spread north. 🌬️ pic.twitter.com/9AZZm620iW
— NWS Jacksonville (@NWSJacksonville) November 8, 2022
Tropical storm conditions begin early Thursday morning when Nicole quickly turns east, bringing sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph. However, uncertainty about exactly how strong Nicole will be and where she will pursue means the National Hurricane Center is urging residents to plan for strong tropical storm winds of up to 73 miles per hour.
A 3- to 5-foot storm surge is expected in the city, which may have impacts through Friday night. In addition to the dangerous high tide, 2-4 inches of precipitation is possible, with higher amounts likely in individual spots. Conditions are also favorable for tornadoes, which could cause additional isolated damage.
Nicole’s effects will be felt in Charleston through Thursday night, resulting in the issuance of a tropical storm warning and a storm surge watch, as well as a high surf alert extending through Saturday.
Sustained tropical storm winds are possible – but not immediately predicted – from Friday morning, with the National Hurricane Center warning locals to prepare for winds of up to 57mph. A significant storm surge is also forecast, with 2 to 4 feet of ocean inundation expected in flood prone locations.
Rainfall is generally expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with locally higher amounts possible. Nicole will weaken as she rapidly moves northeast, bringing with it the threat of sporadic tornadoes in and around the city.
Heavy rains associated with Nicole’s debilitation will infiltrate the Raleigh-Durham area through Thursday night, making for a wet and windy Veterans Day. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be around 1 to 2 inches, with isolated larger amounts possible.
Tropical gale force winds are not ruled out, but the likelihood is low. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts the probability of sustained tropical storm winds in Raleigh at less than 20 percent.
Nicole had an impact on East Coast beach towns, including Virginia Beach, where a high surf recommendation is in effect through Wednesday night. Later in the week, the only impact the city should see is a wet Veterans Day where up to an inch is possible.
The remnants of the fast-moving Nicole will shower the National Capital Region with showers and thunderstorms on Veterans Day, though exactly how much remains a point of contention, with oscillating models and Nicole’s accurate track through the Northeast — or perhaps as far west as the Appalachian spine – not clear.
Generally, locations in the Washington metro area can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, with a greater chance of more rain toward the mountains, with the possibility of isolated severe mid-Atlantic thunderstorms Friday afternoon, a threat that will move with Nicole over the course of the day north. Gusty winds embedded in storms could cause isolated tree damage and power outages.
Heavy rain related to the remains of Nicole will pour into the New York City area during the day Friday, with the heaviest rains expected late in the day through early Saturday morning.
Up to 3 inches of precipitation could fall in and around the Big Apple, with gusty winds also possible. In the course of the afternoon and into the evening there could also be occasional violent thunderstorms.
Nicole won’t spare Boston. Heavy rain is expected to hit the city late Friday afternoon. Heavy rain, gusting up to 40 miles per hour, is likely in the city Friday night, with the rain ending Saturday noon as Nicole continues to move rapidly northeast.
After Boston, Nicole’s remains will make their way to Maine and Atlantic Canada, where heavy rain and gusty winds are also forecast through the weekend – with even modest snowfall expected in the northern parts of Newfoundland and Labrador.