Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

ESPN’s Fantasy Basketball and Basketball Betting Tips Cheat Sheet is your pre-game goal for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data to help you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. NBA game odds for October 27 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and Fantasy Advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Thursday’s games

Fatigue?: The Nets were 3-11 overall winners (5-9 ATS) on the second night of back-to-backs a season ago and tonight are in their first spot this season (they have two more in the next 17 days). Under tickets were redeemed in nine of those 14 games, and the Nets team’s total was a worthy target (106.9 PPG). It’s early days, but Kevin Durant has as many turnovers as assists this season and has more than 33.3% shooting from deep in a game yet.

Giddey for man: Josh Giddey (ankle) is set to miss his second game in a row and that sound you’re hearing is the excitement of Tre Mann’s fantasy managers (or savvy prop bettors). On Tuesday against the Clippers, Mann shot 24 times in his 36 minutes from the field, a shot rate per minute that was 54.9% higher than in his three games earlier this season. The clips have allowed at least 108 points in three consecutive games. So if the Thunder can keep up the pace like they’ve done so far, another night of high usage could be in the offing.

Checking the temperature: Jordan Poole entered this season with an instant offense-type reputation that could fill him in a rush. That’s still true, but he’s quietly added playmaking to his bag of tricks, something roto fantasy managers and prop bettors alike must love. The 23-year-old is averaging an assist for every two shots this season, nearly double his career rate earlier this season. Can it last? Hard to say, but we’ll take a close look at whether those wins tonight are real against a Heat team that’s been in the top 10 for defensive efficiency since the start of last season.

Stackramento: The winless Kings host the rising Grizzlies in Sacramento tonight in a contest claiming the highest total on the slate (236.5). Memphis is sixth in offensive standings, but also last in offensive standings because he was beaten by Dallas last weekend. The Kings, meanwhile, are sixth in pace and 21st in defense, adding even more possessions to this fantasy-friendly setup. Stacking DFS lineups with these two defensively flawed rosters makes sense amid a four-game list. With Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox building high ceilings as building blocks, complementary stocks from Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Desmond Bane and even Santi Aldama could prove rewarding. For those looking for streaming options, Hurter (53% available in ESPN leagues) has increased his 3-point volume by 48.2% since last season with Atlanta, while Aldama (76%) is playing strong minutes and produces a nice mix of blocks and boards for the Grizzlies.

– Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

game of the night

Dallas Mavericks at the Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York

line: Nets (-2.5)
money line: Underdogs (-145), Nets (+122)
In total: 225 points
BPI forecast sum: 233.6 points
BPI Profit %: Outsiders (58.7%)

Questionable: Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot), Markieff Morris (personal)
Excluded: Seth Curry (ankle), Davis Bertans (knee), Frank Ntilikina (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are banned but expect questionable players to play

Fantasy Streamer: Royce O’Neale (Available in 80.5% of leagues) makes a consistent 3 and D effect. He’s averaging 3.5 combined steals and blocks per game plus 2.3 3-pointers per game and has at least two stocks and a 3-pointer in every game this season. — Andre Snellings

Best bet: Christian Wood over 18.5 points. The Mavericks’ offense relies almost entirely on Luka Doncic, Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie. Betting on the overstack (e.g. on points on all three) has been successful so far this season, but for Wood specifically, it doesn’t appear that Vegas has caught up with its role with its new team. In three games so far he has scored 25, 25 and 23 points; He gets a lot of shots as a primary option in the second unit and lieutenant with the main goal when Luka is on the pitch. – Snellings

Mine the rest of the slate

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:00 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

line: Clipper (-6)
money line: Clipper (-250), Thunder (+205)
In total: 218.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 222.7 points
BPI Profit %: Hair Clippers (58%)

Questionable: Paul George (illness)
Excluded: Kawhi Leonard (knee), Marcus Morris Sr. (personal), Josh Giddey (ankle), Jalen Williams (eye)
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are banned but expect questionable players to play

Best bet: Clippers -6. In the first game of a consecutive set, the Clippers lost to the Thunder. However, Los Angeles was without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard, who has a stiffness in his knee, has already been ruled out. While George is doubtful for tonight’s game with an illness, there’s a big chance he will play. The Clippers don’t want to lose back-to-back games against the Thunder. My bet is on Los Angeles. The Thunder are not a strong offensive team, ranking 27th in points scored per 100 possessions played. This season, Oklahoma City allows their opponents an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. – Eric Moody

Memphis Grizzlies with the Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden One Center, Sacramento, California

line: Grizzlies (-3)
money line: Grizzlies (-165), Kings (+140)
In total: 237 points
BPI forecast sum: 236.6 points
BPI Profit %: Grizzly Bears (52.5%)

Questionable: John Konchar (shoulder)
Excluded: Ziaire Williams (knee)
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are banned but expect questionable players to play

Fantasy Streamer: Santi Aldama (listed in 23.2%) is a great streamer against the kings. He’s averaged 12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 1.3 BPG in 30.8 MPG this season and has scored 30 or more fantasy points in three out of four games. The Kings are 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions, which also helps matters. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Keegan Murray over 16.5 points. Murray averaged 17.5 PPG in his first two NBA games, came off the bench but got plenty of minutes. He’ll start on Thursday and while realistically his minutes can’t get much higher, that show of confidence also puts him on the pitch with playmakers who can give him a more open look. Murray showed me in the Las Vegas Summer League that he’s ready to be a professional scorer in the NBA, and he has a speed advantage over Santi Aldama that should allow him to be aggressive in his first scoring start. — Snellings

Miami Heat at the Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco

line: Warrior (-6.5)
money line: Warrior (-260), Heat (+210)
In total: 227 points
BPI forecast sum: 227.9 points
BPI Profit %: Warrior (67.7%)

Excluded: Andre Iguodala (hip), Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), Victor Oladipo (knee)
Note: BPI numbers account for players who are banned but expect questionable players to play

Fantasy Streamer: James Wiseman (Available in 65.4% of leagues) has proven that it can produce efficiently even in a few minutes from the bank. Wiseman has hit double digits in three straight games, averaging 11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 0.8 BPG in 17.8 MPG over the season. As part of the second unit, he should also avoid Bam Adebayo quite a bit, and Wiseman’s physical tools should allow him to take down Dewayne Dedmon and the otherwise underpowered Heat front. — Snellings

Best Bet: Andrew Wiggins over 25.5 points + assists + rebounds. This season, Wiggins averages 20.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.3 BPG in 32.3 MPG. For the season he has a 21.7% utilization rate and faces a heat defense set on fire by small forwards. Miami allowed 28.3 PPG, 4.05 APG, and 8.7 RPG for the position. — Eric Moody

Analytics Edge

The highest projected totals of BPI

1. Memphis Grizzlies (118.7 points)
2. Dallas Mavericks (118.0 points)
3. Sacramento Kings (117.9 points)

The lowest projected totals of BPI

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (110.2 points)
2. Miami Heat (111.6 points)
3. Brooklyn Nets (115.6 points)

Highest BPI Win Probability (Straight Up)

1.Golden State Warriors (66.7%)
2. Dallas Mavericks (58.7%)
3. LA Clipper (58.0%)

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