Warm Return To Work With Rain Then Snow Will Try And Polar Vortex Disruption Next Week
Monday evening, January 2, 2023
After this long vacation break, most people return to work on Tuesday morning and the weather still has a few surprises that I want to highlight here. This is just to give you an idea of what is expected and may happen in the future. If you’re just getting back to the way things are, I’ve created this as an easy and quick read. I’ve also included my report on the Polar Vortex which I play a big part in with the heat and pattern change planned for this month.
Surface weather on Monday evening
If you’ve seen the Rosebowl and the Penn State ROMP, then you’ve heard about Southern California’s rare rains. There is a very active storm trail for the western United States leading into the middle of the nation and then into our north. This is the simple reason why we are “warm”.
The central U.S. storm is producing heavy snow from Denver to Iowa while also igniting a heavy storm outbreak in Arkansas and approaching between St. Louis and Memphis.
storm animation
GFS model 08:00 Tue to 08:00 Thu
Rotogravure moves into New York and New England with two rainstorms for our region. Both will sooner reach our northern areas and miss the southern part.
Take a closer look below.
snapshots
Tuesday
Expect some fog and drizzle, but western and northern Baltimore are more likely to experience showers and steady rain. Rain will be heavier in southern Pennsylvania, including York and Lancaster, before noon.
Further south near Baltimore and Annapolis, this wave can be missed.
Wednesday
The next wave of showers will start during the day and in the afternoon. The same western and northern areas are more likely to rain constantly. However, there will be patchy showers in central Maryland to shake things up.
It is possible to get some cells with Rolling Thunder.
Winter weather folklore: “When it thunders in winter, snow can fall in a week or less”.
Next phase: Thursday evening to Sunday morning
I did mention that the atmosphere will “try” a bit, but the ingredients struggle to come together. It may not be Friday at this point, but we may develop some slushy snow Saturday night through Sunday.
This loop below ends on Sunday, January 8th at 7am.
Note: I am not proposing any impact at this time. The ground is still warm and I don’t see any significant snow. But this supports the ski resorts and ambiance to remind you that winter isn’t over yet and is trying to fight back.
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Polar vortex disturbance next week?
If you missed my last report I explained why The Polar Vortex wraps around the North Pole but has historical analogues in recent winters showing a turn and winter exhibition by the end of January.
Animation:
1pm Tue Jan 3rd to 1pm Mon Jan 9th
Here we can look at the stratospheric pressure levels.
Over the next week, this tight polar vortex is expected to distort to expand and bring colder air to the eastern US.
Snapshot: Monday, January 9, 1 p.m
This view helps show the sweeping elevations stretching from the North Pole into the eastern United States. This is NOT an arctic explosion like Christmas, but is bringing colder air back to us.
Watch closer
A major bottom in the next week is NOT the full pattern change but rather the colder spike within a warm pattern I was talking about. This is common and can produce some snow, but also helps keep the arctic air shaking and bring about that pattern change within a week or two of this pass.
temperature outlook
GFS Model for Baltimore at BWI
I am only showing this model for the trend in response to this pattern. We’ll see a return to near-normal temperatures this weekend, then an attempt for a colder climb by the end of next week.
A NOTICE:
I still refuse to trust surface weather charts more than 1 week away. However, I see a pattern like this that can support wintry events. It’s on the horizon and well within normal expectations.
I know it’s hard for snow lovers to believe, but I have Faith in the Flakes later this month.
I will have my full weather report online at 6:30 Tuesday morning. Until then.
FITF
What is Faith in the Flakes?
It started in 2009 with my son
December 5 Snow in Baltimore and the beginning of belief in the Flakes FITF
STEM gatherings/in-school field trips are back
Click here to see more and to ‘book’ a visit to your school.
My winter outlook: Not a typical La Niña!
I see many factors supporting a colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Listen.
Winter 2023 outlook for snow not typical of La Niña plus polar vortex disturbance
See also The Winter Outlook Series:
Atmospheric memory suggests active winter storm pattern
NOAA Winter Outlook 2023 Very different from Farmers Almanacs
Peasant Almanac Comparison
Winter Outlook 2023 Early views of snow from two farmer’s almanacs
Triple Dip La Nina Winter
Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations
CONNECTION TO WINTER?
If you want a snowy winter, look for it during the rest of the tropical season. (You might see a lot of commercial snow removal people this winter).
Record August for No Named Tropical Storms: Closer look at snow to come
Caterpillars of the woolly bear
Winter weather view from the woolly bear caterpillar
Persimmon Seeds
Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmons and Snow Folklore
Click here to view the Top 20 and MORE
Winter weather folklore Top 20 and more Outlook Nature’s signals for cold and snow
Normals and Records: Climate History of Maryland and Baltimore
