Snow Or Sleet May Begin Inland Tuesday Ahead Of Rain

November 13, 2022

Sunday night update

Today’s cold air masses brought a layer of snow to the high mountains of West Virginia, West Maryland and Pennsylvania. The next event may drop some flakes a little further east and maybe in nearby suburbs.

Before I explain why I’m suggesting this, I need to add a few disclaimers:

Yes, I love snow and have been Leading Faith in the Flakes with my son for over a decade. I’m not the only one. I posted a “poll” on Facebook on Sunday evening and got a huge response. This is what it looked like after only 3 hours. I think there is overwhelming support for the change of season.

No, I don’t think this will be a local travel issue. If you’re traveling along or west of I-81, we may need to talk about liability. I will address this in my next reports.

No, I don’t let any wishful thinking flow into my formal prognosis. What I’m going to show you below is the scientific reason I believe there could very well be snow or sleet in the upstate suburbs of Baltimore late Tuesday.

To do this, we will look at temperatures at cloud level, which can be cold enough even when surface temperatures are too warm. So this is for what can fall, NOT for what can stick (lie and stay).

Storm animation:

GFS model Tuesday 7am to Thursday 7am

This shortwave brings a band of precipitation to the Northeast, with accumulations of snow (blue) and sleet or a mixture of sleet or slush (pink), then ending as rain. This will be the case when warmer air follows the initial impact.

November 14 Weather Snow Sleet Storm Tuesday


1 p.m. Tuesday

Initial precipitation will reach the West Virginia and Virginia mountains as rain or sleet.

4 p.m. Tuesday

The “stuff” should start later this afternoon in central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. I say stuff because there can be sleet or snow in western and northern Baltimore

Temperatures at 5,000 ft

We use the 850 MB level for cloud-level temperatures that can support frozen precipitation. This is measured in Celsius. Shading white and gray, this 0°C line may cut through central Maryland for a few hours.

7 p.m. Tuesday

As precipitation becomes heavier, evaporative cooling and the pulling down of colder air can support greater snow and sleet coverage.

In Maryland, this may include portions of Frederick, Carroll, and north of Baltimore counties. In Pennsylvania, this may include Adam, York, and Lancaster counties.

(Ground temperatures will likely remain above freezing, so no sticking around).

Temperatures at 5,000 ft

The freeze line is shifted near the Maryland-Pennsylvania border.

10 p.m. Tuesday

Temperatures at 5,000 ft

This freeze line continues to move north, so any mixing becomes a cold rain.

Other models

Canadian GEM model

This model is quite aggressive with the GFS to bring in that wintry mix for Baltimore’s northern suburbs.

European ECMWF model

This does not indicate a hint of pockets of snow or mingling in the same inland zones.

Looking ahead:

Jet Stream Wednesday morning through Saturday morning

A rift will form for the eastern US, leaving high temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.

I will be following this in more detail in my Monday afternoon report.

November 14 jet stream cold weather

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